2016 Academy Awards Predictions

Every year, the Oscars are a big deal for myself and my family. We bet on winners and cast ballots while we watch the show. We make an effort to see every movie that is nominated. I've seen every film nominated in major categories this year, aside from a few obscure nominees in the acting categories. There's been a lot of controversy this year with the lack of diversity. I think it's unfortunate, and attention needs to be brought to it. However, I am glad that there is a year where I haven't the slightest idea what movie will win Best Picture. Here are all my Oscar picks for every category (except the two sound and editing categories).

Best Picture:

And the nominees are...
The Big Short- Four groups of people in the world of Wall Street and high finance predict the credit and housing bubble collapse of 2008, and decide to take down the banks for their greed and lack of foresight. Starring: Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt
Bridge of Spies- At the height of the Cold War, a lawyer is hired to defend a suspected Soviet spy in court, and attempts to give him a fair trial and exchange him for an American spy captured in the USSR. Starring: Tom Hanks, Mark Rylance
Brooklyn- An Irish immigrant in 1950s Brooklyn struggles with her life back home with her family and her new life with a suitor in America, and in a crisis, she must choose between two countries and the lives within. Starring Saoirse Ronan, Emory Cohen, Domhnall Gleeson
Mad Max: Fury Road- In a post-apocalyptic Australia without water, a drifter stumbles upon a woman rebelling against a tyrant in search for her oasis homeland and seeking freedom for a group of women prisoners. Starring Tom Hardy, Charlize Theron
The Martian- After his team has left him for dead on a manned mission to Mars, astronaut Mark Watney must use his limited to resources to try to survive alone until NASA can return for him. Starring: Matt Damon, Jessica Chastain, Kristen Wiig, Jeff Daniels, Sean Bean
The Revenant- A frontiersman on a fur expedition in the 1820s fights for survival after being mauled by a grizzly bear and left for dead by his team, and travels across the country to get revenge on the man who wronged him. Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Hardy, Domhnall Gleeson
Room- After five-year-old Jack and his mother escape from their captor and enclosed surroundings, he is captivated by the outside world he is introduced to, while his mother struggles to be re-introduced after their horrifying ordeal. Starring: Brie Larson, Jacob Tremblay, Joan Allen
Spotlight- When four investigative journalists at the Boston Globe discover a local Catholic church covered up child molestation scandals, they dig deeper and find a dark and twisted story that goes much deeper than just one church. Starring: Mark Ruffalo, Michael Keaton, Rachel McAdams

This is a confusing race. Spotlight has been the lock for months, but lately it looks like its "anti-Catholic" message might be hurting its chances. If it won, it's not really nominated in a lot of the technical categories, so it wouldn't have the "sweep" that the Academy sometimes likes to award. The Big Short is coming fast on its heels with a win from the Producer's Guild of America and strong box-office numbers. It's funny because Spotlight and The Big Short are polar opposites. Both tackle a group discovering something wrong and capitalizing on it, only one is dark and serious, and the other light and humorous. Both are excellent films, but both are only nominated in the major categories, which doesn't signify universal support. The real dark horse is The Revenant. I personally do not find it as deserving as the former two, but I think that it has a lot of things going for it. It's the audience favorite. It has Leonardo DiCaprio who has all of the attention right now for his possible win. It also has the most nominations, and will likely win in a lot of technical categories. If it wins, it could be that sweep I mentioned earlier. As for the other nominees, Mad Max is just lucky it got in, even if it deserves to win, and Room and Brooklyn will do better in other categories. Bridge of Spies is just Spielberg getting a deserved nomination for the excellent work he continues to produce, and The Martian has no steam. At the end of the day, I think the Academy will go with its gut and choose Spotlight.

Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: The Big Short or The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should've Been Here: Inside Out

Best Director:

Lenny Abrahamson- Room
Alejandro González Iñárritu- The Revenant
Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
Adam McKay- The Big Short
George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road 

There is only two people who could possibly win, and it's blockbuster vs blockbuster. If George Miller wins a major award for Mad Max: Fury Road,  that will satisfy all of the film's very vocal fans. But Alejandro Iñárritu, winner of the Director's Guild of America award, could win his second Best Director Oscar in a row. He won last year for Birdman, and he might win again, which would be a new achievement. I think Miller will win so they can avoid this repetition. If Ridley Scott was included, this would be interesting. Shockingly, he is absent. 

Will Win: George Miller
Could Win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Should Win: George Miller
Should've Been Here: Ridley Scott- The Martian

Best Lead Actor:

Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
Matt Damon- The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant 
Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs 
Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl

It's Leo's year. I'd give him a 90% chance of walking away with his first Oscar, and those are probably conservative odds. If anything else happens I will be utterly shocked. This is his year. None of the other nominees sacrificed what he did for his demanding role as Hugh Glass. I think if anyone is taking his statue away, it's Matt Damon, but that's a very small chance. The Academy like to keep people happy, so they'll reward Leo for The Revenant. It's interesting that in a year where Eddie Redmayne looked likely to win back-to-back Oscars for his performance as a transgender in The Danish Girl, those early odds have evaporated. Fassbender and Cranston are recognized for stellar work, but their chances are pretty nonexistent.

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Could Win: Matt Damon
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should've Been Here: Ian McKellen- Mr. Holmes

Best Lead Actress:

Cate Blanchett- Carol
Brie Larson- Room
Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn

It's Brie Larson's year. Personally, I don't think it should be. Her performance is definitely deserving, but I believe it is Saoirse Ronan who should win for her delicately layered performance in Brooklyn. Larson is seeing that roles of abuse generally get a lot of attention from awards guilds. There is a lot of press surrounding Larson and her new "it-girl" status, and she's likely to repeat Jennifer Lawrence's ascent to stardom. She's already been cast in Kong: Skull Island, which is practically guaranteed to be a blockbuster. Speaking of Lawrence, all of the internet sources who say she can pull off a second win are so far from the truth. There is no chance she will win for a movie that has attracted so little attention. It's good to see Rampling nominated after a great and underappreciated career, and Blanchett also recently won. This will be Brie Larson's night, so don't bet against it.

Will Win: Brie Larson
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should've Been Here: Charlize Theron- Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale- The Big Short
Tom Hardy- The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
Mark Rylance- Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone- Creed 

This is one of the toughest categories to predict. Mark Rylance gives a truly "supporting" performance as Rudolf Abel, a convicted Soviet spy in Bridge of Spies. His performance is so subtle yet he commands attention in every scene. It's simple and elegant. The opposite is true of Sylvester Stallone in Creed. His performance is not quiet, it is very emotional and poignant. I think he deserves to win, and it would be a wonderful return to form for Stallone. This is a success story I think the Academy will like. Tom Hardy could even win just because of The Revenant's hype. But I think Rylance is the safest choice, and the smartest choice, seeing as he is a veteran stage actor just transitioning to film, with some good years obviously ahead of him if they capitalize on it. The Big Short and Spotlight are both ensemble movies so I cannot see them awarding any acting from those films.

Will Win: Mark Rylance
Could Win: Sylvester Stallone
Should Win: Sylvester Stallone
Should've Been Here: Jacob Tremblay- Room

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara- Carol
Rachel McAdams- Spotlight
Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs

This is probably the most stacked category, but there are still some clear front-runners. I wish Jennifer Jason Leigh would win because she seemed to work the hardest. Her role in The Hateful Eight was so vile and disgusting, and she was immensely committed to becoming that horrible and dark character. Kate Winslet looks like she could win her second Oscar for her role as Joanna Hoffman, the manager of Apple who assisted and often fought with Steve Jobs. Her performance really makes the movie, and she definitely had more of an effect on me than Fassbender did. If Winslet is the veteran, Alicia Vikander is the rookie of the year. Her role as the wife of a man who chooses to become a woman is incredibly poignant and so heartbreaking. She also had an amazing performance in Ex Machina as a female android, and an Oscar would likely be rewarding both performances, but choosing the more dramatic film to recognize her. In a movie that should have been about transgender rights, it ended up being about how they sometimes hurt the ones they love. It's gotten some criticism for this risky move, but this choice has made Vikander shine with one of the best breakout performances in recent memory.

Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Could Win: Kate Winslet
Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh
Should've Been Here: Jane Fonda- Youth

Best Original Screenplay:

Bridge of Spies- Joel & Ethan Coen, Matt Charman
Ex Machina- Alex Garland
Inside Out- Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie del Carmen
Spotlight- Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer
Straight Outta Compton- Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus

Bridge of Spies has one thing going for it and that's the Coen brothers. Unfortunately, they've won too many times (Fargo, No Country for Old Men) that they have no chance. I'd like to see Ex Machina get it because it's a fascinating script with a very complicated story of man vs machine that really blurs the line between humans and robots. Inside Out is also deserving, as its script was so complex and complicated for a children's film. However Spotlight is the clear winner. It's nominated for Best Picture, where it's a front-runner, and it's a script about writing. That is the kind of story the Academy likes to reward.

Also, Straight Outta Compton has no chance, because the Academy hates black people this year.

Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Ex Machina
Should've Been Here: The Hateful Eight- Quentin Tarantino

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Big Short- Adam McKay, Charles Randolph (The Big Short by Michael Lewis)
Brooklyn- Nick Hornby (Brooklyn by Colm Tóibín)
Carol- Phyllis Nagy (The Price of Salt by Patricia Highsmith)
The Martian- Drew Goddard (The Martian by Andy Weir)
Room- Emma Donaghue- (Room by Emma Donaghue)

I'm taking a shot in the dark. I have no idea who will, would, or should win this. I'm guessing The Big Short because it handles a dark subject with humor, but I honestly have no idea. All of these movies have awards-worthy scripts, characters, and dialogues. This is probably the category that best reflects the best talent of the year. Pick a random one, because it will be hard to figure out who gets the trophy.

Will Win: The Big Short
Could Win: Brooklyn
Should Win: The Big Short
Should've Been Here: Steve Jobs- Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson)

Best Animated Feature:

Anomalisa
Boy & the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

As the larger image for Inside Out suggests, there is no way it is losing this award.
1.) It's Pixar and Pixar always wins.
2.) The movie was a massive box office and critical success.
3.) It just missed a Best Picture nomination. So Inside Out has been a lock since June.

Will Win: Inside Out
Could Win: N/A
Should Win: Inside Out
Should've Been Here: The Peanuts Movie

Best Documentary Feature:

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine's Fight for Freedom
  
I cannot speak for any of the other nominees, but I can attest to Amy's greatness. Amy is an interesting story and a fantastically made film. The documentary is well paced with musical breaks of Winehouse's own songs, and it tells the story as true as it could ever be told after her death. It almost feels like you're watching a dramatic version of her life. I've head good things about The Look of Silence, but I'm betting on the one I saw.

Will Win: Amy
Could Win: The Look of Silence
Should Win: Amy

Best Original Score:

Bridge of Spies- Thomas Newman
Carol- Carter Burwell
The Hateful Eight- Ennio Morricone
Sicario- Jóhann Jóhannsson
Star Wars: The Force Awakens- John Williams

There really are only two contenders here. While I love the intense booms in Sicario, and the subtle tone shifts of Bridge of Spies' score, it's down to John Williams or Ennio Morricone, both veteran composers. Williams takes his iconic score from the original Star Wars, and modifies the key changes and passages to create music that sounds brand new, yet also nostalgic. His score makes the experience of Star Wars: The Force Awakens that much more exciting. Ennio Morricone also has some odes to the Westerns he used to compose like The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, and The Hateful Eight's score is so complex with so many moving parts, it's amazing to listen to. I'd say Morricone's score made my experience in The Hateful Eight much more enjoyable than it would have been with any other composer, so I'm picking his work to be rewarded. The overture for that film is just a ridiculously impressive feat that I do not believe will go unnoticed.

Will Win: The Hateful Eight
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Win: The Hateful Eight or Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should've Been Here: Inside Out

Best Original Song:

"Earned It" by The Weeknd- Fifty Shades of Grey
"Manta Ray" by J. Ralph- Racing Extinction
"Simple Song #3" by Sumi Jo- Youth
"Til It Happens to You" by Lady Gaga- The Hunting Ground
"Writing's on the Wall" by Sam Smith- Spectre

This category is really hard to predict as well. If you've heard Lady Gaga's "Til It Happens to You", from the documentary The Hunting Ground about campus rape, you know how immensely powerful it is. It's the kind of ballad she will nail at the live performance. She will probably get an Oscar since she's Lady Gaga, and she's transitioning into a more serious musician. But don't underestimate The Weeknd. He's coming up fast as a hot commodity, and even if it's for a terrible film like Fifty Shades of Grey, "Earned It" is still a great song.

Will Win: "Til It Happens to You"
Could Win: "Earned It"
Should Win: "Til It Happens to You"
Should've Been Here: "See You Again"

Best Costume Design:

Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

I'm confused as to why is The Revenant is here. The costumes are good, but certainly not something that ever caught my eye. The clothes in Carol are fantastic, but that same costume designer is nominated for her work in Cinderella, which is far more impressive. All anyone was talking about in March was how beautiful that blue dress was. The only competition is Mad Max: Fury Road, whose white gowns and "period-appropriate" clothing truly made the movie feel authentic. It's a tight race, but I'd give the edge to Cinderella.


Will Win: Cinderella
Could Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Cinderella

Best Set Design:

Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Mad Max: Fury Road is the only picture you need to see. While all the sets are good, there's just nothing like Mad Max's fast cars, sweeping desert landscapes, spiky trucks, and cave monuments. The setting is truly incredible. If it were anything else, I'd say The Revenant, but it did not really utilize designed sets.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Makeup/Hairstyling:

Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out of a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Another category Mad Max has in the bag.

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Easiest category of the night besides Inside Out for Best Animated Film. The camera angles and amazing cinematography from Emmanuel Lubezki, the winner of this category for the past two years for his work on Gravity and Birdman. It's stunning, sweeping, and so impressive. A lock.

Will, Could, Should Win: The Revenant

Best Visual Effects:

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

There is a lot of great talent here. The only one that can't win is The Martian. As good as it is, it really uses traditional CGI effects and no new ground is broken. Ex Machina has amazing effects, but they're only on Ava's body to make her look like a robot. They're small and understated, so I don't think it has a good chance. Mad Max's visuals are fantastic, and its use of solely practical effects is a a narrative I think the Academy would like to reward. However, Star Wars combines both CGI and practical effects, and they have to give something to the biggest movie of the year, right? I predict that it will be The Revenant that will win for its incredible CGI bear attack scene. That bear was so realistic and so terrifying, that it will be rewarded.

Will Win: The Revenant
Could Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Should Win: The Revenant

Best Foreign Language Film:

Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Mustang (France)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Theeb (Jordan)
A War (Denmark)


Son of Saul is a lock. The film was a Cannes sensation and depicts the lives of the Hungarian POWs that the Nazis forced to work in their concentration camps. There's really nothing else that holds a candle to its amazing premise and supposed excellent execution.

Will and Should Win: Son of Saul

So here's my tally for the night

Mad Max: Fury Road- 4 (Director, Set Design, Makeup, Sound Editing)
Spotlight- 3 (Picture, O. Screenplay, Editing)
The Revenant- 3 (Actor, Cinematography, Visual Effects)
Amy- 1 (Documentary)
The Big Short- 1 (A. Screenplay)
Bridge of Spies- 1 (S. Actor) 
Cinderella- 1 (Costume Design)
The Danish Girl- 1 (S. Actress) 
The Hateful Eight- 1 (Score)
The Hunting Ground- 1 (Song)
Inside Out- 1 (Animated Feature) 
Room- 1 (Actress)
Son of Saul- 1 (Foreign Language Film) 
Star Wars: The Force Awakens- 1 (Sound Mixing)