Best Picture:
Arrival- When aliens land on Earth, the US army sends Dr. Louise Banks, a linguist, into their vessel to study their language and see how they comprehend English. Hopefully their language will provide insight into why they arrived. Starring: Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker
Fences- Troy Maxson is a garbage man who once dreamed of being a professional baseball player. It's the 1950's, and he's far past his prime, and the pressures put on him by his regret cause him to lash out at his family. Starring: Denzel Washington, Viola Davis
Hacksaw Ridge- Desmond T. Doss is a pacifist who refuses to hurt another man. When he signs up for the army, he is ridiculed by his comrades and officers, but manages to save them all when they need him in the Battle of Okinawa. Starring: Andrew Garfield, Vince Vaughn, Hugo Weaving
Hell or High Water- When the bank forecloses on their mother's home, two brothers start robbing the banks in rural Texas to make a statement, as well as to pay their debts. When an aging sheriff takes on the case, the two find themselves in over their heads. Starring: Jeff Bridges, Chris Pine, Ben Foster
Hidden Figures- The incredible true story of three black mathematicians who worked for NASA in the 60's, who despite prejudice rose up in the ranks. The three, along with other women, all worked together to get men into space. Starring: Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monáe
La La Land- In present day Los Angeles, a failing jazz musician and a struggling actress cross paths. Through a shared love for the arts and dreams, they navigate the city and their lives in this sweeping love letter to the musical and LA. Starring: Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone
Lion- The remarkable true story of Saroo Brierley, an Indian-born man adopted by an Australian couple as a young child. He was separated from his family at an age too young to remember, and he only wants to find them again. Starring: Dev Patel, Rooney Mara, Nicole Kidman
Manchester by the Sea- After his brother unexpectedly dies, a guilt-ridden loner must return to the seaside town he had abandoned. He is shocked to find his ex-wife and her influence is still prevalent, and that his brother named him guardian of his son. Starring: Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams
Moonlight- A three-part epic of the life of a homosexual black man as a child, teenager, and adult. He struggles to separate himself from his ghetto neighborhood and the influence of his crack-addicted mother, and struggles with his identity. Starring: Naomie Harris, Trevante Rhodes, Mahershala Ali
This has been the easiest Best Picture race that I have ever seen. It will be La La Land. There really is no way around it. The film is an awards juggernaut. It started out with early word-of-mouth, which fueled its record seven wins at the Golden Globes. Then audiences got interested, where it has made over $100 million stateside, and almost $400 million worldwide, and it isn't slowing down. Plus, producers have taken an anti-political stance, claiming La La Land is the antithesis of all the negative political discourse in America. It's the perfect storm. If anything beats it, it'll be Moonlight. Moonlight is deserving, but that is a very difficult film with less support. It's important, but this will be La La Land's big night.
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land
Shoud've Been Here: Deadpool
Best Lead Actor:
Casey Affleck- Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield- Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling- La La Land
Viggo Mortenson- Captain Fantastic
What started out as Casey Affleck's year has surprisingly become the most confusing major race. He had won essentially every award on the face of the Earth for his stripped-down performance as a man consumed with grief in Manchester by the Sea, sharing the Golden Globe with Ryan Gosling (Comedy/Musical) for his work in La La Land. Then allegations about sexual harassment (that I'd known about for months) began to gain traction in the news cycle, and his lead weakened. So I predicted if Gosling won the Screen Actor's Guild, it would be a sign of a real, genuine race. But Denzel won. He deserves it for his commanding role in Fences, but now it's anyone's guess who wins. Affleck's lead is certainly weakening, and Gosling and Washington have an equal shot. I'm going with my gut, because I believe Affleck gave the best performance of the year, hands down.Denzel Washington- Fences
Will Win: Casey Affleck
Could Win: Denzel Washington
Should Win: Casey Affleck
Should've Been Here: Colin Farrell- The Lobster
Best Lead Actress:
Isabelle Huppert- Elle
Ruth Negga- Loving
Natalie Portman- Jackie
Emma Stone- La La Land
This is the race that I am the least pleased with. It's looking like it's going to be Emma Stone's year. However, when I saw La La Land, the movie swept me off my feet but she didn't. She does a great job, but she didn't have the grittiness that I saw in other roles. I feel like if she gets the Oscar, it's only to make her star rise in a Jennifer Lawrence fashion. Personally, I think it should go to Isabelle Huppert for Elle, the winner of the Golden Globe. It's a foreign role, but her Globes win wasn't even a surprise. She deserves every win. Post-Globes, her French role hasn't been eligible or nominated for many other awards, so it's impossible to track her support in the Academy. If anyone takes away from Stone, it's Huppert. On a side-note: Whatever happened to Natalie Portman winning for Jackie? Wasn't that supposed to be a sure thing? Oh, how the times have changed.Meryl Streep- Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win:Emma Stone
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert
Should Win: Isabelle Huppert
Should've Been Here: Amy Adams- Arrival (that snub still doesn't make sense)
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
Jeff Bridges- Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges- Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel- Lion
Mahershala Ali is winning this year. His short performance as a goodhearted drug dealer in the drama Moonlight is one of the best performances of the entire year, and it's truly supporting. It's not worth writing a paragraph over speculation. He's winning.Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals
Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Could Win: N/A (Dev Patel?)
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Should've Been Here: Hugh Grant- Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis- Fences
Naomie Harris- Moonlight
Nicole Kidman- Lion
Octavia Spencer- Hidden Figures
This category is a two-way race. It'll either be Viola Davis or Michelle Williams. But this is an insanely stacked category, and probably the best of the four. Naomie Harris' turn as a drug-addicted neglectful mother is incredibly moving, as are Nicole Kidman and Octavia Spencer in their respective films. The issue is that Davis is technically a lead who is stuck in the supporting category. She probably has more lines than the leading actress winner. And then on the opposing side is Williams, whose intense albeit brief turn as a grieving mother sees her deliver one of the best scenes of the year in Manchester by the Sea. Still, Davis hasn't won an Oscar yet, and her role is meaty, even if it's in the wrong category. I'm predicting a win for Fences.Michelle Williams- Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Viola Davis
Could Win: Michelle Williams
Should Win: Anyone in this category
Should've Been Here: Janelle Monáe- Hidden Figures
Best Director:
Damien Chazelle- La La Land
Mel Gibson- Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins- Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan- Manchester by the Sea
Well, we know it's not going to be Mel Gibson. The nomination alone is a symbol that Hollywood has accepted him again, but he won't win. A similar problem faces Lonergan, who has no chance of winning. Yet Lonergan could see a victory in the screenplay category for his great script for Manchester by the Sea. Villeneuve's direction in Arrival is one of its best features, but a true sci-fi film, even one as heady as Arrival, doesn't stand a chance. I'm making this out to be a competition, when in reality, Damien Chazelle has this locked down. There is a 1% chance that Barry Jenkins wins. I'd love to see that as much as the next guy, but Chazelle deserves it. La La Land's direction is amazing. The skill Chazelle utilizes in his craft is mind-boggling. He deserves it, and he'll get it.Denis Villeneuve- Arrival
Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Could Win: Barry Jenkins
Should Win: Damien Chazelle
Should've Been Here: Theodore Melfi- Hidden Figures
Best Original Screenplay:
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
I really hope it's not La La Land. While I believe it is as close to a perfect film that I've ever seen, its script isn't nearly as complicated as the other nominees. If La La Land takes this home, it's just to add another win to its title. Manchester by the Sea is the best. I've seen it three times, and on each occasion the dialogue and the scope of the film has blown me away. I'd also be happy with Hell or High Water taking it, as its simple and straightforward premise is actually quite compelling.20th Century Women
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should've Been Here: Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
This is quite perplexing. Hidden Figures may need to win something, and it might just win here. I don't think it's deserving over the other films, but its witty script is certainly spectacular. I'm going with Hidden Figures for this reason. Don't be surprised if Moonlight takes this one because it's the second-place Best Picture film. I'd be content, though I really want it to be Arrival. It's adapted from a short story that I read a few months back, and it truly is a fantastic adaptation. The writer really built off of a very simple tale and infused some really heavy themes.Moonlight
Will Win: Hidden Figures
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Arrival
Should've Been Here: Deadpool
Best Animated Film:
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia. I love Moana, and I really enjoyed the simple beauty of The Red Turtle, but it will be Zootopia. Its heavy metaphors of race and segregation are extremely relevant right now.Zootopia
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Moana
Should Win: Zootopia
Should've Been Here: Finding Dory
Best Foreign Language Film:
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Foreign Language Film is a category that I really have to stab at. I usually haven't seen any of them, so I have to make an educated guess. I actually did see A Man Called Ove, as I read the book it was adapted from. So as a respectable film critic, I'm going to vote for the one I saw.Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Will Win: A Man Called Ove
Could Win: Toni Erdmann
Should Win: A Man Called Ove
Best Original Song:
"Audition (The Fools Who Dream" by Emma Stone from La La Land
"Can't Stop the Feeling!" by Justin Timberlake from Trolls
"City of Stars" by Ryan Gosling & Emma Stone from La La Land
"The Empty Chair" by Sting from Jim: The James Foley Story
"How Far I'll Go" by Auli'i Cravalho from Moana
Aside from the Sting song from an obscure documentary, all of these songs are really quite good. "Can't Stop the Feeling!" is a little old, and it was a massive hit, so I think that's enough success. Plus, Trolls was supposed to be terrible, so the Academy isn't looking to reward it. Out of the two La La Land songs, "City of Stars" is the deeper one, even if Emma Stone's piercing performance of "Audition" possibly seals her Oscar win. It'll either be "City of Stars" or "How Far I'll Go", which was written by Lin-Manuel Miranda. You might remember him. He is the face of Hamilton, and inarguably the biggest new star of 2016. If he wins, he wins an EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) and becomes the youngest ever to achieve this. The Academy might not be able to resist.
Will Win: "City of Stars"
Could Win: "How Far I'll Go"
Should Win: "City of Stars"
Should've Been Here: "Drive It Like You Stole It"- Sing Street
Best Original Score:
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Okay, let's be realistic. What is Passengers doing here? And WHY isn't Rogue One nominated? Or Nocturnal Animals? This category is all kinds of messed up. The haunting score for Jackie is very impressive, but it's also extremely repetitive. The most affecting score emotionally is the dismal strings of Moonlight, but it's hard to go up against the sprawling musical that is La La Land.Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: Moonlight
Should've Been Here: Rogue One
Best Documentary Feature:
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
OJ: Made in America
While I Am Not Your Negro is making waves at the box-office right now, it looks like it'll either go to OJ: Made in America or 13th. Coming off of the heels of the spectacular The People vs OJ Simpson, this sprawling twelve hour TV documentary series takes an incredibly in-depth look at the race issues and sports issues leading up to and following the Trial of the Century. See a problem in that sentence? It's a TV series. Any other year, I would think that OJ would win, yet I fear voters will find issue with that technicality. So it'll go to 13th, a fantastic Netflix documentary on how we're returning to slavery with mass incarceration of criminals. It's helmed by Selma's famously snubbed Ava DuVernay, and she deserves an apology.13th
Will Win: 13th
Could Win: OJ: Made in America
Should Win: OJ: Made in America
Best Costume Design:
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
This is one of the most ridiculous categories for La La Land to be nominated in. Costumes? They're literally just wearing regular clothes. Aside from one scene where extravagant dresses are a focus, the costumes aren't anything special. The sad thing is, La La Land might win, just to give it another award. However, I think the costume branch of the Oscars won't stand for this, and that Jackie will win for its phenomenal depiction of the former First Lady.La La Land
Will Win: Jackie
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Best Set Design:
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Another one for La La Land. No questions needed, it deserves this one.Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Should Win: La La Land
Best Cinematography:
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
If you aren't aware, cinematography is the art of camerawork. It's the camera angles, the epic shots, the tinted lens, etc. Arrival is 100% deserving of this award, but it won't win. Moonlight also has incredible angles and a steady hand, but this award is La La Land's. La La Land has an opening scene filmed in one take. The camera dives into the water with dancers. Its essentially a character in the film, and the wonderful camerawork will be rewarded.Silence
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival or Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land
Should've Been Here: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Makeup / Hairstyling:
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
I don't even know what's happening with this category. Why is Suicide Squad here? Why isn't Deadpool? My heart says A Man Called Ove because it's nominated somewhere else in the ceremony, but it'll probably be Star Trek Beyond.Suicide Squad
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Should Win: A Man Called Ove
Best Visual Effects:
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Jungle Book has been the frontrunner for months. Even though it feels like it came out a year ago, it'll probably win, as it completely immerses the viewer in a world completely composed of visual effects (aside from Mowgli) to great effect. If anything else is taking it, it's Rogue One for bringing Peter Cushing's Grand Moff Tarkin back from the dead and making Carrie Fisher (ironically) younger.Rogue One
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Rogue One
Should Win: The Jungle Book
Best Film Editing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
I'm surprised Manchester by the Sea isn't here, as it has one of the most affecting montages I've ever seen. It'll probably be La La Land. The editing is probably pretty well done, even if it's something I don't remember being a standout. But watch out for Hacksaw Ridge as the spoiler. War movies are always strong contenders.Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Editing:
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
My brother always says Sound Editing goes to "the loudest movie". By that logic it should be Hacksaw Ridge, but my gut says otherwise. Arrival is such a phenomenal film, they'll want to reward it somewhere. And it's pretty loud. So I think it'll win Sound Editing, but don't count out the loud one.Sully
Will Win: Arrival
Could Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Best Sound Mixing:
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One
I'm not entirely sure what sound mixing is. So I'm just going to say La La Land.13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Will Win: La La Land
So here's my tally for the night:
La La Land- 9 (Picture, Director, Actress, Score, Song, Set Design, Sound Mixing, Editing, Cine)
Manchester by the Sea- 2 (Actor, O. Screenplay)
Arrival- 1 (Sound Editing)
Fences- 1 (S. Actress)
Hidden Figures- 1 (A. Screenplay)
Jackie- 1 (Costume Design)
The Jungle Book- 1 (Visual Effects)
A Man Called Ove- 1 (Foreign Film)
Moonlight- 1 (S. Actor)
Star Trek Beyond- 1 (Makeup/Hair)
13th- 1 (Documentary)
Zootopia- 1 (Animated Film)
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