2018 Academy Awards Predictions

Every year, the Oscars are a big deal for my family and friends. We bet on winners and cast ballots while we watch the show. My family has made an effort to see every movie that is nominated. This year I have seen all the nominees for Best Picture and the acting categories, and most of the other nominees in the other fields. I'm eager to see what this ceremony brings, as it's the first in the Me Too / Time's Up movement, and in the wake of the Weinstein scandal and its ripples. That could certainly effect what the Academy picks. Here are my picks for every single category, in what will win, could win, and should win.

Best Picture

And the nominees are...

Call Me By Your Name- Set in 1980s Italy, a 17-year-old boy, seemingly straight and on the cusp of adulthood begins a romantic affair with one of his father's visiting grad students, and the summer they spend is filled with intense romance and passion. Starring: Timothée Chalamet, Armie Hammer

Darkest Hour- Centering on Winston Churchill's ascension to power and his unpopularity, and how his decision making in the Dunkirk invasion changed the course of the war, and of history forever. Starring: Gary Oldman, Lily James, Kristin Scott Thomas, Ben Mendelsohn, Stephen Dillane

Dunkirk- HThe incredible true story of the hundreds of thousands of soldiers, stranded with no hope of ever getting back home, and how home came for them in one of the most staggering events in world history. Starring: Fionn Whitehead, Mark Rylance, Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, Harry Styles

Get Out- A young black man goes home with his white girlfriend for a weekend away to meet her parents, unaware that her family is part of a rural racist cult that kidnaps African-Americans. Starring: Daniel Kaluuya, Allison Williams, Catherine Keener, Bradley Whitford

Lady Bird- A senior at a Catholic school makes life difficult, by forcing everyone to call her "Lady Bird" and acting out towards everyone, especially her sharp-tongued mother. Yet underneath is a girl trapped between child and adult. Starring: Saoirse Ronan, Laurie Metcalf, Timothée Chalamet 

Phantom Thread- An incredibly OCD fashion designer decides to take a young girl as his bride. Smitten, she accepts, not realizing that he wants a doll to dress up and control, and their toxic relationship has no escape. Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Vickey Krieps, Lesley Manville

The Post- The true story of Kay Graham and Ben Bradlee's efforts to publish the controversial Pentagon Papers and expose the government's lies and misdeeds regarding the Vietnam War, with risk of going to prison. Starring: Meryl Streep, Tom Hanks, Bob Odenkirk, Sarah Paulson

The Shape of Water- A lonely mute woman working as a janitor in the 60s forms a relationship with a fish-like humanoid creature being held in the govt building she cleans. United in their isolation, the two form a beautiful romance. Starring: Sally Hawkins, Michael Shannon, Octavia Spencer

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- Furious that her daughter's murder has not been solved, a bitter mother starts a relentless turf war with the local police, starting with her placement of three shocking billboards at the town's entrance. Starring: Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson

I said last year's would be easy to pick, yet Moonlight had a shocking win over La La Land, made even more surprising given the circumstances. This year, I have no idea who will take home the Oscar, but I've narrowed it down to two contenders. The Shape of Water checks off a lot of boxes. It's beautifully directed, acted, and written. It has a completely original story and it's the kind of spectacle to be seen in theaters. It harkens back to old Hollywood romances and creature films, and is a genre film without reaching too far. It also seems like the woman / fish-man sex has not bothered a lot of people. On the flip side is Three Billboards, which is the gutsy and unflinching look at Middle America, and centers on a bitter woman fighting for justice regarding her daughter's rape and murder. It's very socially relevant right now, and is also just a good movie. Three Billboards likely won't win Screenplay, and it isn't even nominated for Director, so that puts it statistically at a disadvantage. However, I think that Three Billboards will win because it's buzzier, and it's also a better movie than The Shape of Water in my opinion.

Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Could Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Lady Bird, Get Out, Three Billboards

Should've Been Here: The Big Sick

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet- Call Me By Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis- Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya- Get Out

Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington- Roman J. Israel, Esq.

In a perfect world, Timothée Chalamet would win for Call Me By Your Name. He was the early frontrunner, and his mesmerizing turn as a 17 year old coming to terms with himself and his sexuality is one of the best performances I have ever seen in my life. At 22 years old, he'd be the youngest winner ever, and already has a talent far beyond his years. Hopefully, he'll win soon, because Gary Oldman is the frontrunner. His performance as Winston Churchill is magnetic. He commands every scene and it's the kind of performance that the Academy eats up. He doesn't quite have the subtletie, arc, or reserve that Chalamet has, but then again, neither did Winston Churchill...

Will Win: Gary Oldman

Could Win: Timothée Chalamet

Should Win: Timothée Chalamet

Should've Been Here: James Franco- The Disaster Artist

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins- The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie- I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan- Lady Bird

Meryl Streep- The Post

This category has been locked for a long time. Frances McDormand will take home gold for her powerful performance as a bitter mother brutally lashing out at her local police force over her daughter's unsolved murder. Nobody did "more" acting in a film this year, and her performance threatens to swallow up the entire movie. The other four nominees are great, but none reach McDormand's level. This will be her second Oscar, after winning for Fargo in 1997. On the reverse, Sally Hawkins gives a powerful performance without ever uttering a word. If there's a spoiler, I suspect it will be her, even though I'd love to see Saoirse Ronan, a three-time nominee at only 23, finally win.

Will Win: Frances McDormand

Could Win: Sally Hawkins

Should Win: Frances McDormand

Should've Been Here: Jessica Chastain- Molly's Game

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe- The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins- The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer- All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

When I saw Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project last November, I would have easily predicted him to win. Yet Sam Rockwell has taken home every televised award from the Golden Globe to the BAFTA. It's not that Rockwell isn't deserving. His performance, much like co-star Frances McDormand's, is very loud and showy. But Willem Dafoe, who has made a career out of being a creepy guy, finally gave a performance as a sweet, complicated, and caring man. I wish he'd win, but it's likely going to be Rockwell. But look out for Christopher Plummer, who might become the night's Me Too moment. Plummer was famously cast as J Paul Getty after Kevin Spacey was removed following the sexual assault revelations. I think it'd be a little too obvious and undeserving, but stranger things have happened. 

Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Could Win: Willem Dafoe

Should Win: Willem Dafoe

Should've Been Here: Armie Hammer or Michael Stuhlbarg- Call Me By Your Name

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige- Mudbound

Allison Janney- I, Tonya

Lesley Manville- Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf- Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer- The Shape of Water

This is a rare occasion in which all four acting categories have gone to the same four actors in every major awards show. Allison Janney has been the winner so far, and precedence suggests she'll win this time too. Though if any category has the realistic potential for an upset, it's this race with Laurie Metcalf. They both play "monster mothers" yet Janney's is a foul-mouthed abusive terror, while Metcalf's is a mother who struggles to make the right decisions. Janney is the kind of performance that wins awards, whereas Metcalf is the kind of subdued delivery that gets overlooked so often.

Will Win: Allison Janney

Could Win: Laurie Metcalf

Should Win: Either Janney or Metcalf

Should've Been Here: Holly Hunter- The Big Sick

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson- Phantom Thread

Guillermo del Toro- The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig- Lady Bird

Christopher Nolan- Dunkirk

Jordan Peele- Get Out

This isn't worth writing a whole paragraph about. Guillermo Del Toro will finally win a much-deserved award for his visionary directing in The Shape of Water. It is even more deserving as it's not a career win, he actually deserves it more than the others. If anyone will spoil him, it's Gerwig, but that's a far second.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Could Win: Greta Gerwig

Should Win: Guillermo del Toro

Should've Been Here: Luca Guadagnino- Call Me By Your Name

Best Original Screenplay

The Big Sick

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

It's odd that the two biggest contenders for Best Picture do not have a huge shot at Best Original Screenplay. Instead, Lady Bird and Get Out, the two films I believe deserve Best Picture the most, are battling it out in a fight that is anyone's guess. Get Out has biting social commentary and a witty script that perfectly blends comedy and horror without losing sight of the message. Lady Bird is without a doubt, a perfect movie, and it wouldn't work without Greta Gerwig's touching and brutally honest script. Both Gerwig and Get Out's Jordan Peele are nominated in Best Director and are unlikely to win, and one of them will unfortunately go home empty-handed (neither are winning Best Director). My bet is on Lady Bird, as I feel the Academy will have a harder time rewarding Get Out. 

Will Win: Lady Bird

Could Win: Get Out

Should Win: Lady Bird or Get Out

Should've Been Here: The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

It's hard to beat Call Me By Your Name in one of the easiest categories to predict. Call Me By Your Name is unlikely to win anything else due to Timothée Chalamet's probable loss to Gary Oldman. Screenwriter James Ivory has been nominated countless times for films like A Room with a View and Howard's End without a single win. He's 89 years old, so this is a good chance to reward him. It also helps that Call Me By Your Name is easily the best film script of both categories combined, so this isn't a tacked on career win, it's 100% deserved.

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

Could Win: N/A; maybe Mudbound?

Should Win: Call Me By Your Name

Should've Been Here: Wonder Woman

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby

The Breadwiner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Another easy one. Pixar has a history of winning, and Coco will add another worthy addition to their trophy case.

Will Win, Could Win, Should Win: Coco

Best Original Score



Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

The Shape of Water will win this because it is so distinct from the other nominees. The score from Alexandre Desplat, who previously won for The Grand Budapest Hotel, moves so beautifully through the film that it almost seems like a character itself. My personal favorite is the score from Phantom Thread, a movie I strongly dislike but appreciate its technical values. But even I cannot argue that The Shape of Water is the most deserving of the pack.

Will Win: The Shape of Water

Could Win: Phantom Thread

Should Win: The Shape of Water

Should've Been Here: Get Out

Best Original Score

"Mighty River"- Mary J. Blige- Mudbound

"Mystery of Love"- Sufjan Stevens- Call Me By Your Name

"Remember Me"- Miguel & Natalie Lafourcade- Coco

"Stand Up for Something"- Andra Day & Common- Marshall

"This Is Me"- Keala Settle & Ensemble- The Greatest Showman

This is the strongest group of songs nominated in recent memory. Andra Day & Common's "Stand Up for Something" presents its message clearly without having to see the movie (spoiler: no one has). Mary J. Blige's "Mighty River" is a powerful ballad that plays over the credits, and enhances the emptiness Mudbound leaves you with. Sufjan Stevens' beautifully indie "Mystery of Love" plays in one of the most emotionally poignant moments in Call Me By Your Name, and is a dark horse to win. In reality, it's down to Coco & The Greatest Showman. There isn't a dry eye when "Remember Me" plays in Coco, and the little tune is insanely catchy. But The Greatest Showman has done the impossible: it's conquered all critical hurdles to become a box-office smash, and has had the biggest legs since Titanic. I've yet to see the movie, but "This Is Me" is completely worthy of a win, and I think it will serve as a worthy apology to the film's surprising amount of fans.

Will Win: "This Is Me"

Could Win: "Remember Me"

Should Win: Any of them

Should've Been Here: "Evermore"- Josh Groban- Beauty and the Beast

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Mudbound

The Shape of Water

This is another easy category to predict. The Shape of Water is a beautiful film, and could give Blade Runner 2049 a run for its money. But Roger Deakins has been nominated 13 times and has yet to win, and he is widely considered the most respected in his field. I have personally met Deakins, and he has worked on some of the best films in history. To say that Blade Runner 2049 is his best work is a true testament to his ability. The entire film is stunning and breathtaking, and is the single most beautifully shot movie I've seen. If it loses, it will be a huge upset.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Could Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Blade Runner 2049

Should've Been Here: Call Me By Your Name

Best Sound Mixing & Sound Editing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

This is convenient, since both categories have the exact same five nominees. So who's to say that the same film won't win both? Dunkirk is by far the loudest film, and that usually equals a win in Sound Editing. I'm picking Dunkirk for both.

Will Win, Could Win, Should Win (Both): Dunkirk

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria & Abdul

I'm not a fan of Phantom Thread, but I cannot argue that its costumes are absolutely stunning, and something that deserves the most prestigious award. It should come as no surprise that a film about the fashion industry would have such great fashion, and every costume stands out. The Shape of Water also has very great period costumes, and Beauty in the Beast has dazzling fantasy gowns. But I give the edge to Phantom Thread.

Will Win: Phantom Thread

Could Win: The Shape of Water

Should Win: Phantom Thread

Should've Been Here: Wonder Woman

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Darkest Hour

Victoria & Abdul 

Wonder

They turned Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill. This is a no-brainer.

Will Win, Could Win, Should Win: Darkest Hour

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

So this category is also a toss-up. It's likely between The Shape of Water and Blade Runner 2049, and in this case, I am acting on my instinct alone. The Shape of Water seems likely, as its predicted to have a nice sweep of technical awards, but I'm going with Blade Runner 2049, simply because I personally admire its set design more.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Could Win: The Shape of Water

Best Editing

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I predict this to be the big upset of the night. Presumably, Dunkirk will take this home. If not, The Shape of Water as Editing is always linked to Best Picture. They rarely choose the movie that actually has the best editing. Baby Driver was one of the best edited movies of the year, and I'm thrilled that it's nominated for three Oscars. I believe that the technical branch of the Academy will rightfully award it tonight.

Will Win: Baby Driver

Could Win: Dunkirk

Should Win: Baby Driver

Should've Been Here: Call Me By Your Name

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

You can always tell which nominees are just the blockbuster fill-ins. Kong and Guardians have no shot at this award, as they break no new ground. The same can be said for The Last Jedi, even though it relies on more practical effects. It's been used before. Blade Runner 2049 used excellent holographic techniques and War for the Planet of the Apes would give them a chance to reward this amazing franchise and its stunning motion-capture work, and would almost be a honorary award for Andy Serkis, who has been snubbed too many times. It just matters on what narrative they choose to write.

Will Win: Blade Runner 2049

Could Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

Should Win: Either

Should've Been Here: Wonder Woman

So there you have it. Those are my predictions in the major categories, not including Documentaries, Shorts, or Foreign Language films. Here is the final tally and I hope you tune in, or read the news tomorrow to see if I got them right!

Blade Runner 2049: 3 (Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 3 (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor)

Darkest Hour: 2 (Actor, Makeup / Hair)

Dunkirk: 2 (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

The Shape of Water: 2 (Director, Score)

Baby Driver: 1 (Editing)

Call Me By Your Name: 1 (Adapted Screenplay

Coco: 1 (Animated Feature)

The Greatest Showman: 1 (Song)

I, Tonya: 1 (Supporting Actress)

Lady Bird: 1 (Original Screenplay)

Phantom Thread: 1 (Costume Design)